Review:
You can tell a subject's changing ideas by the gap between editions.
Given that this is the fourth in 15 years we can see how far
the science has come. It's worth remembering that only the same
time prior i.e. 30 years ago, that global cooling was the main
education topic and only a few mavericks considered global warming
to be serious. Now it's the other way around we still need to
make sure that we have the best information. Having recently
worked through a controversial
and heavily referenced text by a leading Australian writer
it's useful to see how other arguments have been developed (especially
as this book's subtitle is 'the complete briefing'). It's certainly
comprehensive (rather than 'complete' given the nature of the
material we've accumulated about this subject). The presentation
is better with full-colour making ideas easier to follow. It
can certainly claim to be a valid update with this edition almost
twice the size of the second edition I reviewed some years back.
Big question - how's it stood up to the passage of time?
Chapter
one starts with a basic overview. We are told of a number of
events around the world that are not "usual" give
our past experience. This is put into the context of both vulnerability
to change (i.e. we need to change because some communities are
at a dangerous risk level) and a more theoretical framework
for studying the issue of global warming (emissions, climate
change, vulnerability and human systems). In keeping with current
ideas adaptation and mitigation are key sub-themes. Chapter
two gives a basic overview of the concept of the greenhouse
effect showing the amounts and rates of energy transfer. One
of the key ideas in global warming is the nature of products
that give rise to the enhanced effect (i.e. the 'extra' part
due to human activity). Chapter three outlines the key gases
(not just carbon dioxide) and particles that are considered
the principle components of global warming. Much debate has
taken place about the role of past climates to our understanding.
Chapter four explores these ideas looking at the past 100 years
and then a further order of magnitude back to study hallucinates
(although deeper geological ice ages and warming periods are
excluded). The next chapter brings us squarely to one of the
main areas of disagreement in the global warming debate - modelling.
The atmosphere is extremely complex (if not chaotic in its responses)
and computer models are still primitive by comparison. There
is a chance to look at these models and to see how they work
and some of the issues they raise. Interestingly, the IPCC has
a range of models (as do other organisations) and all agree
that modelling is a problem and that several scenarios are needed
to get a balanced response. Despite all the issues and debate,
most models still predict a rise in temperature. Chapter six
takes these scenarios and recast them onto a global scale. This
gives us some idea of what might happen, where (and to some
extent, when). This is a turning point for the book's case because
from here, the science gives way to change and solutions. We
start with chapter seven which examines the types and magnitudes
of change under a range of global warming scenarios. A very
wide range of examples has been chosen with impacts upon ecosystems,
fresh and saline waters, deserts, food supply, human health
and, finally, cost. The basic argument is that the cost of doing
nothing will be out-weighed by the damage caused. Chapter 8
takes on the brave topic of concern for the environment. The
answer to the question of concern is played out against a backdrop
of cases ranging from frog populations to equity and the future.
Lest it should be seen as complete and finished, chapter 9 highlights
the fact that most models and estimates are just that - there
is always uncertainty in calculations and the trick here is
to be as accurate as possible. Assuming this will happen, chapter
10 studies our responses and outlines solutions from political
to engineering and the decisions needed to make some sort of
way forward. Most of global warming centres around energy and
energy useage with chapter 11 showing what can be done to reduce
energy consumption and therefore greenhouse gases. Finally,
there's the opportunity, in chapter 12, to put global warming
in the context of other, equally pressing cases.
It's
a big, sweeping canvas that seeks to highlight the key items
needed to discuss global warming. It is inevitable that there
are omissions but these do not detract, overall, from the message
being conveyed. It is a remarkable book and one of the most
comprehensive on the market. It deserves a wide readership.