Review:
Models are the basic stock-in-trade of the ecologist. They have
been used from the simplest ideas to some of the most pressing
and complex situations such as global warming. It must be considered
essential that people understand the modeling process and yet
that is very clearly not the case. One of the main problems
is that models are seen to be complex 'black box' operations,
too complex for the ordinary person to understand. A simple
input-output diagram is seen as understandable but all of a
sudden, put four or five of these together and it becomes an
issue! There is a need for a text that puts modeling into perspective
which is where this book comes in.
We
start with a very brief overview of the book and are introduced
to the three scenarios that form the basis of the study: hunter-gatherers,
population levels and resource management (broadly speaking).
Each represents a different level of complexity in model making
and yet each retains enough simplicity to make the process of
modeling the focus. Chapter two describes the scenarios in more
detail and suggests ways in which a 'solution' can be worked
out. The aim here is to discuss the parameters of the model
and gain some idea of where the results might lie. From this
point, the text starts to work through a model-making procedure.
The outline of this procedure was first seen in chapter two
in parallel with their initial 'common sense' approach. The
aim is to produce a model based on careful logical steps. Chapter
three starts the process with an analysis of the conceptual
model i.e. the key features, flows and constraints. Here is
where the processes are laid out and connected. Limits and boundaries
are drawn to show which components work. Chapter four adds the
data which includes the rates of change and initial parameters.
The next stage is to check the model, to see if it actually
answers the questions put to it. In other words the aim here
is to validate the model or, as the authors suggest, invalidate
it in ways similar to hypothesis testing. A brief chapter six
outlines how the model, now tested, can be applied to a range
of situations. At this stage, the modeling system is complete
and it remains to study some of the issues generated. Chapter
7 looks at some of the common problems faced. Chapter 8 takes
the modeling process further and shows how these ideas can be
applied in other areas. The final two chapters take a look at
the initial problems posed and how the modeling process can
be extended.
This
is a very useful book. Models should be easy but the complexity
of natural systems will mean that, invariably, there are issues
that need to be resolved. This text provides us with a way of
making and understanding models using principles that scale
up from the smallest system to something global. After all,
even the most complex global climate model is just a large number
of simple ones put together (although many climate scientists
would argue otherwise!). What this book tries to do is de-mystify
the process, to show us that we can make good models that are
valid. More importantly, it starts to give the reader a sense
of confidence, that models can be read and understood. After
all, if we are going to use them it is crucial that we actually
understand them. We need some sort of model-literacy and this
book starts the process.