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Title: Environmental Change
Author(s): Frank Oldfield
Date of Publication: 2005 Publisher:Cambridge University Press
Pages:xxi + 363 ISBN:0 521 53633 2
Price: Format:Paperback
Overview:
Target Readership Sen Secondary
Presentation/Style
Content
Literature
Originality
Overall

 

 

 

 

 

 

Content: 1 - Defining and exploring the key questions; 2 - An introduction to models and modelling; 3 - The palaeo-record: approaches, timeframes and chronology; 4 - The palaeo-record: archives, proxies and calibration; 5 - Glacial and inter-glacial worlds; 6 - The transition from the last glacial maximum to the Holocene; 7 - The Holocene; 8 - The Anthropocene - a changing atmosphere; 9 - The Anthropocene - a changing land; 10 - The Anthropocene: changing aquatic environments; 11 - Changing biodiversity; 12 - Detection and attribution; 13 - Future global mean temperatures and sea-level; 14 - From the global to the specific; 15 - Impacts and vulnerability; 16 - Sceptics, responses and partial answers.

Review: Even a cursory glance at the literature will tell us that there's an enormous amount written about the impact of global warming. There's no shortage of models that tell us how much the climate will change, when and where. There's an equally daunting amount of counter-information so that it's become a major occupation just to keep up with the literature. In all of this there's one area that has been less well served - a critical analysis of methods and research strategies that can be appreciated by a non-specialist audience. This text aims to fill such a gap.

We start off with an introduction that sets the scene - a change of 4 degrees Celsius in 50 years about 11,600 years ago - and highlights the really key questions: rate of change, population numbers and global transformation. It then continues by looking at earth-system science and a series of key questions (related to those noted above). The final sections look at the main methodologies and research strategies that are used. As Oldfield rightly states, these have now become so well-known and researched to be entities in their own right. People can easily support one or other on principle without necessarily wondering about use or accuracy. From here, the remainder of the text is given over to exploring each of these methods in turn. Chapter two starts with the most important idea - modelling. We are taken through the historical development of models, their construction and the degrees of accuracy they have. Chapter three looks at data from palaeo-records. Here we have a series of tests: ice cores, isotopes, carbon dating, tephra and palaeomagnetism which all produce results but which may conflict. Chapter four looks at more recent data - those found in instrumental logs (such as weather data which can go back hundreds of years) or in archives and other written records. There's also a good section on using proxy measurements for climate change such as dust, sea-level changes, and biological sources. Chapter five examines the more well known methods used in getting information from glacial environments. In addition to a range of techniques such as trace gas and dust there's also a discussion about the ways in which environmental change can affect the results and our interpretations. Chapter six marks a change from method towards research perspective. It looks at the climate changes between the last glacial maximum and the Holocene. A range of temperature proxies is given along with a discussion of the various mechanisms that might cause this. The ideas presented to this point then leads to a series of tentative conclusions and a look at the way the data causes problems for modellers. Chapter seven continues this idea but looks at the holocene. There's an examination of temperature changes and the impact of global features such as El Nino alongside other change mechanisms such as solar variability and volcanic activity. Chapter 8 gives us the Anthropocene - a time when human action rivals that of the natural system (roughly from 1750 onwards). We look at some of the trends and their causes. This is continued into chapter 9 and 10 which look in more detail at land, nutrient cycles and the hydrosphere. This brings the picture very much up to date and so chapter 11 starts the examination of current trends starting with biodiversity losses. Despite looking at environmental change for most of the text it waits until chapter 12 to explicitly look at the recent changes and the extent to which it can be blamed on human action. It's a story in two parts: finding changes and deciding what might have caused it. Chapter 13 continues the timescale into the future by looking at possible sea-level rise scenarios. This look towards the future continues into chapter 14 which examines changes in rainfall and evaporation patterns. The two final chapters bring together two different responses to the data and methodology laid out before us. The former looks at potential impacts which the latter looks at the range of responses, from sceptic to "believer", and which also highlights the questions we still need better answers to.

This is a remarkable text. It takes both method and data and subjects them to rigorous analysis. It notes both strengths and weaknesses in arguments and puts forward a reasoned case. Each chapter has a series of questions with answers that also have degrees of confidence about their accuracy. A bibliography helps those looking for further information. There are numerous books on the global warming debate but this is the first seen that actually looks in detail at the substance behind the article. This is a definite "must-buy" for both institutional and personal shelves.

 

 

 

 

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