Review:
Even a cursory glance at the literature will tell us that there's
an enormous amount written about the impact of global warming.
There's no shortage of models that tell us how much the climate
will change, when and where. There's an equally daunting amount
of counter-information so that it's become a major occupation
just to keep up with the literature. In all of this there's
one area that has been less well served - a critical analysis
of methods and research strategies that can be appreciated by
a non-specialist audience. This text aims to fill such a gap.
We
start off with an introduction that sets the scene - a change
of 4 degrees Celsius in 50 years about 11,600 years ago - and
highlights the really key questions: rate of change, population
numbers and global transformation. It then continues by looking
at earth-system science and a series of key questions (related
to those noted above). The final sections look at the main methodologies
and research strategies that are used. As Oldfield rightly states,
these have now become so well-known and researched to be entities
in their own right. People can easily support one or other on
principle without necessarily wondering about use or accuracy.
From here, the remainder of the text is given over to exploring
each of these methods in turn. Chapter two starts with the most
important idea - modelling. We are taken through the historical
development of models, their construction and the degrees of
accuracy they have. Chapter three looks at data from palaeo-records.
Here we have a series of tests: ice cores, isotopes, carbon
dating, tephra and palaeomagnetism which all produce results
but which may conflict. Chapter four looks at more recent data
- those found in instrumental logs (such as weather data which
can go back hundreds of years) or in archives and other written
records. There's also a good section on using proxy measurements
for climate change such as dust, sea-level changes, and biological
sources. Chapter five examines the more well known methods used
in getting information from glacial environments. In addition
to a range of techniques such as trace gas and dust there's
also a discussion about the ways in which environmental change
can affect the results and our interpretations. Chapter six
marks a change from method towards research perspective. It
looks at the climate changes between the last glacial maximum
and the Holocene. A range of temperature proxies is given along
with a discussion of the various mechanisms that might cause
this. The ideas presented to this point then leads to a series
of tentative conclusions and a look at the way the data causes
problems for modellers. Chapter seven continues this idea but
looks at the holocene. There's an examination of temperature
changes and the impact of global features such as El Nino alongside
other change mechanisms such as solar variability and volcanic
activity. Chapter 8 gives us the Anthropocene - a time when
human action rivals that of the natural system (roughly from
1750 onwards). We look at some of the trends and their causes.
This is continued into chapter 9 and 10 which look in more detail
at land, nutrient cycles and the hydrosphere. This brings the
picture very much up to date and so chapter 11 starts the examination
of current trends starting with biodiversity losses. Despite
looking at environmental change for most of the text it waits
until chapter 12 to explicitly look at the recent changes and
the extent to which it can be blamed on human action. It's a
story in two parts: finding changes and deciding what might
have caused it. Chapter 13 continues the timescale into the
future by looking at possible sea-level rise scenarios. This
look towards the future continues into chapter 14 which examines
changes in rainfall and evaporation patterns. The two final
chapters bring together two different responses to the data
and methodology laid out before us. The former looks at potential
impacts which the latter looks at the range of responses, from
sceptic to "believer", and which also highlights the
questions we still need better answers to.
This
is a remarkable text. It takes both method and data and subjects
them to rigorous analysis. It notes both strengths and weaknesses
in arguments and puts forward a reasoned case. Each chapter
has a series of questions with answers that also have degrees
of confidence about their accuracy. A bibliography helps those
looking for further information. There are numerous books on
the global warming debate but this is the first seen that actually
looks in detail at the substance behind the article. This is
a definite "must-buy" for both institutional and personal
shelves.