Review: The volume of global warming literature continues to grow and yet there's a niche at the introductory level for a simple idea - how do we get to measure temperature changes and how good are these forecasts? It's into this niche that Archer has placed this book.

We start with a very brief overview of the situation. There is a change but to what extent are we responsible and to what extent can we rely on the data we have? Having set the scene the remainder of the book seeks to examine it in detail. This leads to three parts: the greenhouse theory, the carbon cycle and the forecast i.e. what is it, how does it fit in and how well do we actually know what's happening? The first part ('the greenhouse effect') explores the ways in which we can explain the phenomena. Chapter two looks at the 'black body' ideas of a perfect absorber/radiator and some of the mathematical and scientific ideas behind it. Chapter three adds to this by considering the impact of a reflective layer (the glass in the greenhouse) upon the atmosphere. This model is refined further in chapter four by adding the greenhouse gases - those naturally occurring substances that control the planet's surface temperature. The reflective layer coupled with the greenhouse gases gives rise to a differential energy (heat) pattern both vertically (seen here is chapter five) and horizontally (chapter six where the emphasis is on air movement. Finally, there's the idea of feedback - that the system is interconnected and that items in one area might well impact in another way. This section covers the basic theory of the atmosphere and how it works. Part two looks specifically at the carbon cycle. Chapter 8 examines all the sources of global carbon and the way in which these are cycled. Chapter 9 looks specifically at the energy industry and the future of it and its forecasts (with more than a passing reference to Hubbert's Peak, the peak oil scenario. Chapter 10 describes the changes we see in an altered (perturbed) carbon system - the changes wrought by global warming and other areas such as ozone depletion. Parts one and two provide a brief overview of the situation focussing on looking at the complete picture including theory so as to better understand the construction of global models. Part three changes direction to look at the forecasting of global change. Chapter 11 describes the construction of models and the parameters that each deals with. This moves on to forecasting in both theory, briefly, and practical aspects (where likely scenarios are used to discuss the principles of what went before). A final chapter, looking at the decision-making process, shows the complexity of the human side as well as the natural system. A glossary provides help for those whose technical knowledge needs assistance.

This is a very good book. It examines the basis of the problem showing that global warming is neither global nor recent. It places current problems within a framework whereby better ideas should be propagated. It provides the basic science so often missing in books who seem to assume that you are already familiar with the subject. As such it offers an accessible introduction to an area that has, until this text, received far too little attention. Given it's subject matter it should be regarded as a key book in any library examining this issue.